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Russia’s Compliance With Oil-Output Cuts Slipped in February

Russia’s compliance with its pledge to reduce crude oil output worsened slightly last month after reaching nearly 100% at the start of the year, according to Bloomberg calculations based on official data.

An oilfield in the Republic of Bashkortostan, Russia.
An oilfield in the Republic of Bashkortostan, Russia.

Russia’s compliance with its pledge to reduce crude oil output worsened slightly last month after reaching nearly 100% at the start of the year, according to Bloomberg calculations based on official data. 

The nation pumped an average 1.3 million tons a day of crude in February, said people familiar with data from the Energy Ministry, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the figures aren’t public. That’s equivalent to around 9.54 million barrels a day, based on the common 7.33 barrels-per-ton conversion ratio.

That means Russia’s crude output in February was some 82,000 barrels a day higher than in the prior month. The nation has pledged to curb production by 500,000 daily barrels below a baseline for February 2023. The country’s output last month amounted to a cut of about 406,000 barrels a day below that target. 

Still, the cuts last month were second-deepest since Russia started curbing its crude production in March 2023 in response to Western energy sanctions over the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine, historical data show.

Russia’s Compliance With Oil-Output Cuts Slipped in February

Russia, one of top-three global oil producers, has pledged to keep its crude-only output curbed through 2024. Earlier this month, the nation agreed to deepen its production cuts in the second quarter of this year as part of an agreement with some nations in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, including de-facto leader Saudi Arabia. 

Read More: OPEC+ Extends Oil Cuts, With Russia Bolstering Its Effort 

Russia is the only OPEC+ nation cutting its crude production and exports of both crude and oil products. It will put greater emphasis on the output reductions in April-June, while at the same time slowly raising oil exports. 

In April, its curbs will comprise 350,000 barrels a day of production and 121,000 barrels a day from exports. In May, it will be 400,000 barrels a day of output and 71,000 of exports, while in June the curbs will come from production only. As a result, Russia’s total output curbs in the second quarter are set to nearly match the 1 million barrels per day cut pledged by Saudi Arabia. 

Russia’s Energy Ministry declined to comment on the February crude-output figure.

Moscow classified its oil production data last year due to its sensitivity amid Western sanctions over the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine. The ministry doesn’t disclose the tons-to-barrels conversion ratio it uses for its own assessment of monthly compliance, so the internal calculations may differ from those made by Bloomberg.

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