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ICICI Securities Report
Q2 FY23E estimate for telcos suggest steady mobile revenue growth aided by one additional day and subscriber growth for Bharti Airtel Ltd. / Reliance Jio. Vodafone Idea Ltd. subscriber base continues to shrink.
4G net add has decelerated for Airtel / Vodafone Idea which means lower benefit of premiumisation. Revenue growth QoQ for Airtel (mobile) / Vodafone Idea and RJio likely at 2.2% / 1.5% and 3.2%, respectively.
Vodafone Idea’s marketing aggression has increased in the past few months which is helping it narrow revenue growth gap versus peers, thus, lower benefit of market share gains for Airtel / RJio in Q2 FY23E.
We expect Ebitda margin expansion for mobile operators due to negligible spectrum usage charges for part quarter. SUC was 3-3.5% of adjusted gross revenue which has reduced to negligible on the purchase of spectrum in July-22 auction; full benefit of low SUC will likely reflect in Q3 FY23E.
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