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ICICI Securities Report
Q1 FY23E will see slower mobile revenue growth due to-
subs decline for Bharti Airtel Ltd. / Vodafone Idea Ltd.;
fewer 4G net add due to lower smartphone sales, thus, not much advantage of premiumisation; and
negligible benefit of December 2021 tariff hike, except for Reliance Jio which will benefit on higher proportion of long validity recharge subs.
However, one additional day is the key reason for revenue growth during the quarter for Airtel/ Vodfone Idea. Mobile revenue growth for Airtel is estimated at 1.6% QoQ, while Vodafone Idea’s will grow only 0.6% and RJio’s revenue will be up 3.3%.
Ebitda growth will be further restricted from higher power cost (on rise in diesel prices), and Ebitda margin (adjusted for one-offs) will be flattish QoQ for all the three operators.
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