TCI Express Q1 Results Review - Performance Inline: Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal Report

TCI Express Ltd.’s Q1 FY24 revenue grew 5% YoY to ~Rs 3 billion, largely in line with our estimate. The growth was slow due to weak macroeconomic environment and the company expects it to ramp up in subsequent quarters.

Volume in Q1 FY24 stood at 0.24 million tonnes (up 4% YoY), while realisation was Rs 12,703 per tonne (+2% QoQ).

Ebitda for the quarter stood at Rs 464 million with a margin of 15.2% (versus our estimate of 15.6%). Profit after tax stood at Rs 323 million (versus our estimate of Rs 343 million) with a margin of 10.6%.

The outlook remains bright and we have kept our estimates largely unchanged. We expect TCI Express to clock volume/revenue/Ebitda compound annual growth rate of 11%/13%/21% over FY23-25.

This growth will be facilitated by the implementation of automation and the expansion of the branch network, leading to enhanced operational efficiencies.

An estimated capex of Rs 5 billion is foreseen over FY23-FY28, toward proprietary sorting centers and a corporate office in Gurugram, Haryana.

We reiterate our 'Buy' rating with a target price of Rs 1,900 (based on 36 times FY25E earnings per share).

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