RBI Monetary Policy Review - To Remain Watchful On The Upcoming Trend Of Inflation: KRChoksey

RBI raises the repo rate by 25 basis points.

A Reserve Bank of India RBI signage. (Photo: Vijay Sartape/ Source BQ Prime)

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KRChoksey Research Report

Monetary Policy Committee raised the repo rate by 25 basis points in Feb-22 compared to a 35 bps increase in its last meet. The reduction in the pace of increase of interest rate is due to moderation of inflation, improving trend of economic activity data.

The growth outlook for the Indian economy remains resilient compared to the other economies globally. Investment activities remain strong in India.

The gross domestic product growth for India is retained at 6.8% for FY23E by the central bank. The inflation has seen some easing off as the input costs are off from their peak. However, going ahead, inflation is expected to be around 6.5% for FY23E, which is still above the upper tolerance levels set by Reserve Bank of India.

The global outlook shows improving growth and declining inflation trends but is still above the target for all the major economies. From the banking, financial services and insurance sector perspective, the credit growth offtake is expected to remain resilient across all the segments for banks and non-banking financial companies and doesn’t pose any risk from the demand side.

We expect RBI may pause the rate hike and the rate will remain unchanged in the next meeting, given inflation continues to trend down further and there is no further global disruptions.

However, MPC remains watchful of the economic indicators. RBI will continue to ensure price and financial stability while supporting growth. We remain vigilant of macro development, especially unemployment data, high-frequency indicators and inflationary trends.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:

KRChoksey Research RBI Monetary Policy February 2023.pdf
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Also Read: RBI Monetary Policy Highlights: MPC Hikes Repo Rate By 25 Basis Points, Maintains Caution On Inflation

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