Pharma Q4 Results Preview - U.S. To Drive Momentum: ICICI Securities

ICICI Securities Report

Q4 has historically been a weak quarter for pharma companies; however, with exclusivities in the U.S. and softening of raw material prices in Q4 FY24, we expect our coverage universe to report revenue/Ebitda/profit after tax compound annual growth rate of 10%/20%/34%, respectively.

U.S. is likely to be the primary growth driver, with sales propping 12% YoY. We have built $112/55/52/32/30/25 million from gRevlimid for Dr. Reddy’s/Zydus/ Natco/Cipla/Sun/Aurobindo and $30 million of revenue from gSprivia for Lupin in Q4 FY24E.

Drag in acute therapies could keep a check on India growth, likely at ~8% for our coverage universe. Easing of raw material cost and better sales of exclusive products for U.S. tdrive ~130 bps/190 bps YoY expansion in gross/Ebitda margins to 65.7%/23%, respectively.

Cipla, Aurobindo, Ajanta Pharma, Piramal Pharma and Abbott India are our top picks.

Key risks:

Adverse outcome of U.S. Food and Drug Administration inspections, currency volatility and inclusion of more products under National List of Essential Medicine in India.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:

DISCLAIMER

This report is authored by an external party. NDTV Profit does not vouch for the accuracy of its contents nor is responsible for them in any way. The contents of this section do not constitute investment advice. For that you must always consult an expert based on your individual needs. The views expressed in the report are that of the author entity and do not represent the views of NDTV Profit.

Users have no license to copy, modify, or distribute the content without permission of the Original Owner.