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ICICI Securities Report
NMDC Ltd. has reported better-than-expected Ebitda at Rs 26.8 billion. Karnataka production continues to clock an impressive run-rate of ~12 million tonne per annum (much higher in Q4 FY22).
NMDC's Ebitda/tonne at Rs 2,184/tonne has reduced ~18% QoQ and we expect the same to normalise at Rs 1,100/tonne by FY24E.
Further, realisation/tonne declined by ~Rs 483/tonne QoQ. Royalty/tonne has also declined in line with lower realisation/tonne.
22.5% additional premium was extended to all mines (barring Kumaraswamy); further government has introduced ~50% export duty on iron ore leading to significant headwinds over medium term (one year) earnings.
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