Metals Q3 Results Preview - China Opening, USD Peaking To Support Base Metals, Steel Prices: Axis Securities

Axis Securities Report

Steel hot rolled coil prices have recovered in China with spot HRC prices at $605 per tonne from the trough of $535 per tonne in the last week of Nov-22. The easing of the Zero Covid policy, favorable real estate policies, and expectation of further economic stimulus have led to improved sentiments leading to an increase in the Chinese HRC steel prices.

Steel prices are recovering across the geographies led by optimism from the China opening. Indian Steel prices are now at a slight discount of 1% with the import parity prices. Increased Chinese HRC prices could support the rise in Indian HRC prices.

We expect Tata Steel Ltd. to report revenue de-growth on both YoY/QoQ basis, led by a drop in HRC prices at India and Europe (excluding Mumbai prices down 25%/5% YoY/QoQ). Tata Steel’s consolidated Ebitda is expected to fall by 66%/10% YoY/QoQ led by lower sales realisations and higher energy costs in Europe.

Steel Authority of India Ltd.’s revenue is expected to increase by 2% YoY on the lower base of the last year’s sales volume, partly offset by fall in sales realisations YoY.

We expect aluminium companies under our coverage (National Aluminium Company Ltd. and Hindalco Industries Ltd.) to report aggregate revenue/Ebitda/profit after tax de-growth of 7%/7%/5% QoQ respectively.

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