Lupin - New Drugs Approvals Will Boost Future Prospects: Axis Securities

Axis Securities Report

Lupin Ltd. has recently launched three major drugs in the U.S. market: gMirabegron, gProlensa, and gChantix.

The combined sales from these three drugs could potentially generate incremental sales of ~$100 million per year in the U.S. market.

gMirabegron:

Lupin has launched gMirabegron, being the first to introduce the generic version in 25 mg dosages, in the U.S. market. Mirabegron is utilized in treating overactive bladder symptoms, including urge urinary incontinence, urgency, and urinary frequency.

Lupin, along with Zydus Lifesciences, holds the distinction of being the initial suppliers, making them eligible for 180 days of shared generic drug exclusivity for Mirabegron.

In the 25 mg strength segment, the total opportunity size is $1,019 million, with Lupin having the potential to generate sales of $55- 60 million per year in this segment.

We anticipate that seven-eight more players could enter this segment in the second half of FY25E, potentially leading to price erosion in the range of ~70%-80%.

gProlensa:

Lupin has introduced gProlensa (Bromfenac) in the ophthalmic segment. The company holds the distinction of being the exclusive first to file for this product and is eligible for 180-day exclusivity.

The total opportunity size for this segment is $185 million, with Lupin having the potential to generate sales of $15 million per year.

gChnatix:

Lupin has introduced gChantix (Varenicline) in the respiratory segment. The total opportunity size for this segment is $412 million, with Lupin having the potential to generate sales of $18-$20 million per year.

Niche product approvals and a strong pipeline of new drugs could drive revenue/profit after tax compound annual growth rate by 10%/19.5% over FY24E-FY26E.

We maintain our Buy rating with a target price of Rs 1,770/share.

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