Logistics Q3 Results Preview - While Exim Stays Subdued, Domestic Shines: ICICI Direct

ICICI Direct Report

Q3 saw continued higher retail diesel and petrol prices. However, that had no bearing on strong festive related domestic surface movement (higher customer purchases and inventory filling at retail store level).

The quarter also likely saw higher cyclical e-com volumes as well as higher warehouse utilisation along-with growing footprint of Open Network for Digital Commerce network (Delhivery Ltd. went live on ONDC during the quarter).

While passenger vehicle auto volumes (sales) grew 8-9% during the quarter and tractor grew 14%, sales included volumes from inventory de-stocking (that requires lower logistics element).

On the Exim side, ocean freight rates saw substantial cooling during the quarter, down 30- 35% to $3150/40 feet container from May 2022 levels (Federation of Indian Export Organisations estimates for India U.S., Europe, far east trade routes), mainly due to recessionary fears (also leading to lower port congestion).

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