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HDFC Securities Institutional Equities
City gas distribution companies, Indraprastha Gas Ltd., Gujarat Gas Ltd., and Mahanagar Gas Ltd. have corrected by 26-29% over the last 12 months, underperforming the BSE Sensex by 28-31%, as investors expected sustained margin pressure with rising input gas costs.
We believe the correction is overdone especially as the CGDs have passed on the input gas cost increase underscoring their pricing power, the government has tweaked domestic gas supply to favor the CGDs and compressed natural gas/domestic piped natural gas volume has seen minimal adverse impact of the retail price increases.
Notwithstanding the challenges, we expect overall gas demand from the CNG and domestic piped natural gas sectors to grow at 15.7% compound annual growth rate over FY22-27 supported by aggressive expansion in infrastructure.
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