Indian Paint Industry To Grow 9-10% In FY24, Operating Margin To Rise 100-200 Basis Points: CareEdge Analysis

CareEdge Research Report

• The growth trajectory of the Indian paint industry is projected to ease, with an expected expansion of 9- 10% in FY24, following two consecutive years of remarkable growth in FY22 and FY23.

• This moderation is accompanied by anticipated improvements in operating margins, ranging from 100 to 200 basis points attributed to the decline in prices of critical raw materials and the price increase undertaken by key industry players during FY23 and Q1 FY24.

• The Indian paint industry exhibits an oligopolistic structure, with the top five players namely Asian Paints Ltd., Berger Paints India Ltd., Kansai Nerolac Paints Ltd., Akzo Nobel India Ltd., and Indigo Paints Ltd. dominating ~90% of the organised market, estimated at Rs 62,000 crore as of the end of FY23.

• The industry boasts formidable entry barriers for newcomers, as existing players have established robust marketing and distribution networks, as well as a strong brand presence. Nonetheless, long-term competitive intensity is poised to escalate with the entry of new players such as Grasim Industries Ltd., Pidilite Industries Ltd., and JSW Paints Ltd. These financially sturdy entrants are anticipated to disrupt the market over the long haul.

• Over the next three to four years, the industry is expected to augment its capacity by 20% of the current levels. This expansion will intensify competition, exerting pressure on the margins of top players.

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