India IIP - Slow Recovery In January Despite Global Headwinds: Anand Rathi

Anand Rathi Report

At 5.2%, India's industrial growth in January 2023 was slightly ahead of expectations. All the main categories grew but among the use-based categories durables contracted. Among the use-based categories, four – primary, infra, capital goods and staples – grew 6-11%, intermediate was flat while durables contracted sharply.

From the worst performer for the most of last 12 months, pharma has emerged as one of the top contributors in recent months. In contrast, durables (e.g., electronics) and export-oriented industries (e.g., textiles and apparel) were major drags.

13 of 23 manufacturing categories recorded growth in Jan-23, with four clocking more than 10% growth. Production of staples was close to the all-time high in Jan-23 and infra too was at the best production level.

These two seem to suggest resilient domestic demand despite drag from exports and modest recovery in rural demand which accounts for nearly 55% of demand for staples.

With a balanced base, we expect flattish industrial growth in Feb-23 in line with large unchanged manufacturing Purchasing managers' index in Jan-23 versus Feb-23 .

The headwinds in exports and adverse impact of high interest rates would continue.

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