India Aviation - Higher PLFs Could Set Up A Strong Q3: ICICI Securities

ICICI Securities Report

The average number of domestic daily fliers in November 2022-to-date increased to ~386,000 versus 368,000 during Oct-22.

Domestic passenger load factors have also improved from 78% in Aug-22 to 79% in Sep-22 to more than 82% in Oct-22 in line with seasonally strong demand in Q3.

We are particularly enthused with the prospect of strong earnings for Interglobe Aviation Ltd. in Q3 FY22 which has seen PLFs jump to 82.1% in Oct-22 versus 79.1% for Q2 FY23 in the domestic segment.

IndiGo has witnessed a good momentum in demand parameters and an uptick in revenue metric as per commentary during Q2 FY23 call.

We expect improvement in fares and also PLFs. The combined effect could lead to significant growth in revenue per available seat-kilometer. Historically, Q3 fares have been higher than Q2 by 8% QoQ between FY16-20.

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