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Prabhudas Lilladher Report
Gujarat Gas Ltd. has underperformed the broader index by ~50% over last four months, as geopolitical tensions keep spot liquefied natural gas prices at elevated levels of more than $30/metric million British Thermal unit.
Reports of ceramic units in Morbi switching to propane usage (competing fuel) have also impacted the stock performance. At current market price stock trades closer to -1 standard deviation consensus price-to-earnings of last three years of 17.6 times.
We believe Gujarat Gas is very well placed to navigate this situation and has tied spot LNG purchase till February 2023 at ~$28/mmbtu, when winter gas demand from Europe will be highest.
In the near term, we do not expect Gujarat Gas to compete with propane as prices are seasonally weak in Q2 and will increase in H2 (prices are higher in H2 for last five years except in FY19 due to pandemic).
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