GAIL, Gujarat Gas, MGL, IGL, GSPL, Petronet LNG - Sailing Through Tough Macros: Systematix Initiates Coverage

Systematix Research Report

We initiate coverage on India’s gas sector, and our thesis is premised on-

1. 5% compound annual growth rate in gas consumption over FY22-FY25E versus 2.2% during FY19-22, to be achieved through higher domestic output,

2. 6.5% CAGR in domestic production during the same period, as Reliance Industries Ltd. and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. will likely add ~16 million metric standard cubic metre up to FY25E,

3. expected dip in APM gas price to $6.5-7/per metric million British thermal unit from $7.4/mmbtu in FY23E, in line with Kirit Parikh Committee recommendations,

4. higher inventory at Europe and South Korea, along with a milder winter and restart of Freeport LNG terminal that could cause spot LNG price to dip near term. Yet, we expect spot LNG price to remain high until 2025, when most of the new liquefaction capacity would fructify, and

5. likely continuous decline in APM allocation to city gas distribution companies over the years due to lower production, owing to natural decline.

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