Exchanges, Staffing, Internet Q4 Results Preview - Soft Landing: HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities Institutional Equities

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. revenue is expected to decline by 6.8% QoQ, mainly due to a decline in futures volume and flat options revenue (a drop in effective realisation due to lower premium collection). Higher payout to tech vendor will impact Ebitda margin (~9.4%, down 1,345 bps QoQ). The tech transition remains the key overhang; MCX has been conducting mock trading sessions and the current transition timeline stands at June 30, 2023.

BSE Ltd.'s market share declined across segments, cash/currency market share stood at 7.0/9.5%, down 38/352 bps QoQ, and derivative segment market share plummeted to near zero versus 1.2% in Q3 FY23. The cash turnover remained weak, down 18% QoQ.

Central Depository Services India Ltd. - CDSL added ~1.6 million accounts in March 2023 and the market share stood at 72.5% (up 230 bps YoY). The pace of beneficiary owner account growth has moderated to ~32% YoY versus ~60% in the last 12 months. CDSL’s revenue is expected to decline by 1.8% QoQ, mainly due to a 10% decline in transaction charges and soft online data charges.

Teamlease Services Ltd. is expected to post a weak performance with muted volume growth in core staffing, the decline in NETAP impacted by the closure of the NEEM program, the slowdown in IT hiring and the margin decline.

Internet-

IndiaMart Intermesh Ltd. is expected to have a good quarter; we expect paid supplier addition of ~8500, with higher average revenue per user and strong cash collections. The churn is stable in the monthly bucket and a higher mix of silver and platinum annual customers is driving ARPU higher.

Tanla Platforms Ltd. is expected to report a soft quarter due to soft messaging volume in both enterprise and platform segments. The volume growth is impacted by lower promotional messages and marketing campaigns.

Info Edge India Ltd. - Naukri growth will normalise to 2.5% QoQ (average of more than 9% QoQ post Covid), while the other segments 99acres/Shiksha are estimated to report up 0.7/+2.0% QoQ growth.

Route Mobile Ltd. is expected to report a flat quarter, led by seasonality in the domestic messaging volume (lower promotional volume), offset by new deal wins and stable international business.

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