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ICICI Securities Report
Our channel checks suggest industry volumes in September 2022 may report high single digit month-on-month growth owing to lower prices of steel and cement, lower rainfall (versus normal) in high density areas of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal and pick up in infrastructure projects.
We estimate volume of ~31 million tonnes in Sep-22, implying mid-teens YoY growth and ~8% volume compound annual growth rate on a three-year basis.
On the pricing front, average pan-India prices were flat month-on-month in Sep-22, but up ~5% YoY. From October 01, prices have been increased by Rs 10-15/bag in West India while checks suggest prices may rise by Rs 15/bag in East India and Rs 40-50/bag in South India from the second week of October.
Spot international/domestic pet coke prices increased ~8%13% month-on-month in October 2022 while imported coal prices were largely flat.
Healthy volumes during dull season indicate robust volumes in the upcoming season. This shall provide confidence to cement players to raise prices meaningfully in upcoming months.
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