Automobiles Sector Check - Sustained Recovery In Domestic Two-Wheeler Demand: Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal Report

Our interactions with leading channel partners indicate a sustained recovery in domestic two-wheeler demand as the retail is expected to grow 7-8% YoY, led by stable demand in urban and gradual recovery in rural markets.

As expected, reduction in subsidies for e-two-wheeler has resulted in 30-35% lower enquiries during the month. While we noted a 10-12% decline in enquiry level for passenger vehicles, retails are still expected to grow 2-4% YoY, led by the execution of order book and improving supply chain.

Consequently, inventory level in PVs has increased to four-five weeks, largely for lower-end models. The retail sales of medium and heavy commercial vehicles are expected to decline by 4-6% YoY, due to the pre-buying effect before the OBD-II transition in March 2023.

However, we have observed strong growth in the bus division, driven by demand from educational intuitions and a low base.

As for tractors, although retail growth is expected to be strong (10-12% YoY) during the month, we do not expect any major impact on wholesale volumes as inventory levels are already high at 40- 45 days.

Overall, in June 2023, wholesales for two-wheeler/passenger vehicle/three wheelers are estimated to grow ~2%/5%/25% YoY, while commercial vehicle/tractors are likely to decline 13%/2% YoY.

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