Rising Global Temperatures And El Niño Major Concerns: UN 'Early Warnings For All Annual' Report
Global temperatures will likely reach new record levels in the next five years, according to the latest WMO forecast.
The WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (GADCU), issued annually in May, summarizes the predicted future of the global climate over the next year and the next five years. It provides a synthesis of the global annual to decadal predictions produced by the WMO designated Global Producing Centres and other contributing centres for the period 2023-2027.
As per the latest predictions in the WMO report, Global temperatures will likely reach new record levels in the next five years.
The predicted annual mean global near-surface temperature for 2023-2027 is estimated to be 1.1°C-1.8°C higher than the 1850-1900 average, which is considered a baseline due to the absence of greenhouse gas emissions from human and industrial activities during that time period.
Here are some key predictions of WMO Global Annual Decadel Climate Update:
Global temperature in 2022 was 1.15°C higher than the 1850-1900 average. La Niña cooled Earth's temperature in the past three years. La Niña ended in March 2023, and El Niño is expected to develop soon. El Niño usually raises global temperatures in the following year, which is 2024 in this case.
Scientific projections indicate that the average global near-surface temperature is likely to rise by 1.1°C to 1.8°C from the baseline of 1850-1900, which did not include human or industrial greenhouse gas emissions.
Based on statistical analysis, there is a high likelihood that the temperature record set in 2016, during an abnormally strong El Niño, will be surpassed by at least one instance within the next five years.
There is a 98% probability that the five-year average from 2023-2027 will be higher than the previous five years.
Arctic warming is disproportionately high. Compared to the 1991-2020 average, the temperature anomaly is predicted to be more than three times as large as the global mean anomaly when averaged over the next five northern hemisphere extended winters.
Predicted precipitation patterns for the May to September 2023-2027 average, compared to the 1991-2020 average, suggest increased rainfall in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia, and reduced rainfall for this season over the Amazon and parts of Australia.