Economic Survey: The Indian Economy In Eight Charts
The most interesting takeaways from the Economic Survey 2018, in charts.
The Economic Survey, besides providing a directional cue for the Indian economy, also synthesises reams of data into charts, each of which tells its own story. Here are some of the most interesting:
The prevailing bond yields are indicative of investors’ worries that India may not stick to its fiscal consolidation path. While the Economic Survey left room for a deviation from the stated path of fiscal consolidation, stock market investors seem bullish about rapid growth going forward. The result – prices of bonds and stocks have headed in opposite directions.
The demonetisation exercise and the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax has led to a sharp increase in the number of new tax filers.
In the last four years, the level of real agricultural GDP and real agriculture revenues has remained constant, owing in part to weak monsoons in two of those years.
Real policy interest rates in India were following the global trend downward till the middle of 2016. Since then, however, the downward movement has continued in most other countries, with rates falling by 1 percentage point on average in the second half of 2016 in the U.S. In India, on the other hand, average real interest rates increased by about 2.5 percentage points.
The Economic Survey estimates that demonetisation has led to a reduction in the amount of cash in circulation by Rs 2.8 lakh crore and a decline in high denomination notes by Rs 3.8 lakh crore in terms of value.
Rural wages, which accelerated sharply through much of 2016 aided by an increase in activity on the back of a strong monsoon, decelerated just before the kharif season this year. The rate of growth is still higher than much of the last three years.
Indian companies are spending a lot more as legal expenses.
The Economic Survey also suggests that India’s formal sector employment, especially the non-farm payroll, is substantially larger than earlier believed.