U.S., EU Economy Update - Monetary Policy Errors Have Raised The Risk Of Recession By 2024: ICICI Securities

BQ Blue’s special research section collates quality and in-depth equity and economy research reports from across India’s top brokerages, asset managers and research agencies. These reports offer BloombergQuint’s subscribers an opportunity to expand their understanding of companies, sectors and the economy..ICICI Securities Report.The best predictor of U.S. recessions, the 10 year-two year treasury yield spread, turned negative (i.e., the yield curve inverted) on April 01, 2022 and remained negative the following trading day. A U.S. recession has invariably followed within 24 months of the time this yield curve inverts. Despite the current strength of the U.S. economy (with the unemployment rate at 3.6% in March 2022, levels only exceeded in three months of the last 50 years), a U.S. recession is near-certain by March 2024. A key reason why bond markets are predicting recession is because of the Fed’s policy error in persisting with quantitative easing until Feb-22 despite a tightening labour market, 5.7% real gross domestic product growth in CY21, and inflation more than double the official target of 2% YoY for core personal consumption expenditures..Click on the attachment to read the full report:.DISCLAIMERThis report is authored by an external party. BloombergQuint does not vouch for the accuracy of its contents nor is responsible for them in any way. The contents of this section do not constitute investment advice. For that you must always consult an expert based on your individual needs. The views expressed in the report are that of the author entity and do not represent the views of BloombergQuint..Users have no license to copy, modify, or distribute the content without permission of the Original Owner.

U.S., EU Economy Update - Monetary Policy Errors Have Raised The Risk Of Recession By 2024: ICICI Securities

U.S., EU Economy Update - Monetary Policy Errors Have Raised The Risk Of Recession By 2024: ICICI Securities

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