U.S. Economy - ‘Bidenomics’ Delays Recession: ICICI Securities

BQ Prime’s special research section collates quality and in-depth equity and economy research reports from across India’s top brokerages, asset managers and research agencies. These reports offer BQ Prime’s subscribers an opportunity to expand their understanding of companies, sectors and the economy..ICICI Securities Report.Both core Consumer Price Index inflation (4.7% YoY) and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE (+4.1% YoY) remain more than double the Fed’s target, precluding any near-term easing of monetary policy. Instead, with public debt above 120% of gross domestic product, the fiscal deficit (8.6% of GDP in the year to June 2023) is likely to place upward pressure on bond yields through the rest of CY23. U.S. real GDP remained robust in Q2 CY23 (+2.4% QoQ seasonally adjusted annual rate; +2.6% YoY, versus 1.8% YoY in Q1 CY23), as the generous ‘Bidenomics’ subsidies boosted business investment (+7.7% QoQ saar), and the weak USD reduced the drag from net exports. With M2 money supply down 3.6% YoY in June-23, both inflation and real GDP are likely to moderate in H2 CY23. The resumed strengthening of the USD and the diminution of the fiscal deficit (as spending restraints kick in from October 2023) will likely contribute to slower aggregate demand, and the likely onset of recession in the final quarter of CY23 and Q1 CY24..Click on the attachment to read the full report:.FPI Outflows Likely To Be Short-Lived: ICICI Securities.DISCLAIMERThis report is authored by an external party. BQ Prime does not vouch for the accuracy of its contents nor is responsible for them in any way. The contents of this section do not constitute investment advice. For that you must always consult an expert based on your individual needs. The views expressed in the report are that of the author entity and do not represent the views of BQ Prime..Users have no license to copy, modify, or distribute the content without permission of the Original Owner.

U.S. Economy - ‘Bidenomics’ Delays Recession: ICICI Securities

High core inflation and fiscal deficits to buoy bond yields all year.

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