Trade Talks - India’s Real Exports Decline ~19% YoY In October: Motilal Oswal

India’s real exports continued to contract but real imports grew in October 2022.

<div class="paragraphs"><p>Shipping containers at a port. (Source: Unsplash)</p></div>
Shipping containers at a port. (Source: Unsplash)

BQ Prime’s special research section collates quality and in-depth equity and economy research reports from across India’s top brokerages, asset managers and research agencies. These reports offer BQ Prime’s subscribers an opportunity to expand their understanding of companies, sectors and the economy. 

Motilal Oswal Report

In continuation with our detailed analysis of India’s trade to understand the impact of inflation on nominal trade data, we found that India’s real exports continued to contract but real imports grew in October 2022.

This implies that global demand (or domestic production) is extremely weak. However, domestic demand (excluding inflation) still stands relatively strong, especially after the contraction witnessed in Sep-22. 

Nominal exports declined for the first time in 20 months by 16.7% YoY in Oct-22, while imports grew 5.7% YoY (albeit slower than up 8.7% YoY in Sep-22).

Hence, India’s foreign trade deficit stood at $26.9 billion during the month, slightly higher than Sep-22 but sharply above $17.9 billion in Oct-21. 

Based on 28 major commodities, each accounting for more than 90% of exports and imports, our calculations suggest that India’s real exports contracted 19.3% YoY in Oct-22 – the fastest decline in 29 months but real imports grew 1.4% YoY after contracting 8.6% YoY in Sep-22.

Notably, the inflation impact is much lower in Oct-22 than it was in the previous few months as the prices of most commodities exported and imported have either contracted/contracted faster/grown slower in Oct-22.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:

Motilal Oswa Eco-Monthly Exports Update.pdf


This report is authored by an external party. BQ Prime does not vouch for the accuracy of its contents nor is responsible for them in any way. The contents of this section do not constitute investment advice. For that you must always consult an expert based on your individual needs. The views expressed in the report are that of the author entity and do not represent the views of BQ Prime.

Users have no license to copy, modify, or distribute the content without permission of the Original Owner.