The Omicron Wave — Higher Highs, Weaker Blows: HDFC Bank
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HDFC Bank Report
What we know from the spread of omicron globally: More infectious, less severe infections than delta.
South Africa Experience: Omicron waves tend to spike faster and die away quicker than Delta waves.
In India, more than 60% of the cases are now estimated to be the omicron variant.
The strong relation between economic activity and google mobility in India suggests that with an increase in Covid restrictions, economic activity is likely to take a hit in Q4 FY22.
The return of uncertainty around growth and inflation due to the spread of the new variant might delay the RBI’s decision to hike the reverse repo rate in February 2022 as well.
We expect the USD/INR pair to remain range bound between 74-76 over the coming quarter.
We expect the 10-year bond yield to trade between 6.4-6.5% over the coming month.
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