Oil & Gas Sector Check - ONGC, Oil India, GAIL’s EPS Outlook Good Despite Oil, Gas Fall: ICICI Securities
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ICICI Securities Report
Brent is down 13% from July 2021 peak due to demand concerns in big oil markets on Covid-19 surge; at latest futures, FY22E brent is 2% above, but FY23E 1% below, our estimates.
FY23E deepwater and administrative price mechanism gas price at latest spot liquefied natural gas, Henry Hub and UK National Balancing Point, futures (down from recent highs) are 28-39% higher than our estimates.
LPG price based on futures is higher than our forecasts for GAIL India Ltd. and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd.
Net impact of brent, LPG and gas at latest futures and upside/downside to gross refining margin and gas sales, is upside to FY22E-23E earnings per share of ONGC of 2-13%, Oil India Ltd. of 11-8% and GAIL of 18-5%.
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