India Economy Watch - What Explains The Massive Revisions In EPFO Payroll Data? Motilal Oswal's Analysis
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Motilal Oswal Report
In this report, we analyse the monthly data published by the Employee Provident Fund Organization to get a sense of formal employment in India.
The headline numbers suggest that India’s formal employment in the first seven months of FY22 continues unabated. The net new subscribers to EPFO stood at 7.3 million (or one million per month) in April-October 2021, with an average monthly net increase of 1.3 million during this period.
In contrast, it stood at 7.7 million (or 0.64 million/month) in FY21, which was similar to 7.9 million (0.65 million/month) in FY20. The lower addition in H1 (at 0.32 million/month) was almost entirely offset by a strong growth in H2 FY21 (0.97 million/month).
It implies that the formal employment in India has increased at more than one million/month during the past 14 months as compared to 0.7 million/month in the pre-Covid-19 period.
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