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FMCG Q3 Results Preview - Inflationary Pressures Easing; Rural Yet To Pick Up Pace: Nirmal Bang

For the overall fmcg coverage, we expect Ebitda margin to expand by ~30 basis points YoY.

<div class="paragraphs"><p>Close view of a shopping cart. (Source: rawpixel.com / Roungroat/ freepik)</p></div>
Close view of a shopping cart. (Source: rawpixel.com / Roungroat/ freepik)

BQ Prime’s special research section collates quality and in-depth equity and economy research reports from across India’s top brokerages, asset managers and research agencies. These reports offer BQ Prime’s subscribers an opportunity to expand their understanding of companies, sectors and the economy. 

Nirmal Bang Report

We present Q3 FY23 estimates for our fast moving consumer goods sector coverage companies. We continue to highlight three-year compound annual growth rate in our estimates for most of our growth comparisons to make better sense till the Covid impact comes into the base.

At an aggregate level, the demand momentum has not seen any major improvement as inflationary pressures continue to affect consumer wallets.

Further, the pace of growth in rural markets is yet to pick up. A delayed winter is likely to affect the winter portfolios of companies like Emami Ltd. and Dabur India Ltd.

We are expecting our fmcg coverage universe to clock revenue growth of 9% YoY (three year CAGR – 11.2%).

Consumer staples companies are expected to deliver a better performance, with 10.9% YoY revenue growth. While prices of certain commodities continue to remain inflationary, correction witnessed in some key commodities is likely to result in sequential expansion in gross margin for majority of our coverage companies.

For the overall fmcg coverage, we expect Ebitda margin to expand by ~30 basis points YoY (down 120 bps YoY for consumer staples).

Click on the attachment to read the full report:

Nirmal Bang Consumer FMCG Sector - 3QFY23 Result Preview.pdf
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