February CPI Inflation At 6.4% Inline With Expectations: Motilal Oswal
Another rate hike of 25 bps in April 2023 is a given.
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Motilal Oswal Report
Consumer price index inflation stood high at 6.4% YoY in February 2023 compared to 6.1% in Feb-22. Although the Feb-23 inflation print is 10 basis points lower than the Jan-23 level, it is still higher than the Reserve Bank of India’s target upper limit of 6%. The number is exactly in line with our forecast and Bloomberg consensus.
Cereals inflation remained very high at 16.7% YoY compared to 16.3% in Jan-23. On the other hand, vegetable inflation came in at -11.6% YoY in Feb-23 versus-11.7% in Jan-23.
Consequently, this offset caused food inflation to remain sticky at 6% YoY in Feb-23. Moreover, CPI, excluding vegetables, came in at 7.6% YoY, lower than a 104-month high of 7.8% in Jan-23.
Other important observations in the inflation data:
Core inflation (housing, clothing and footwear and miscellaneous) came in at 6.3% YoY in Feb-23, similar to previous three months.
Standard core CPI (excluding food and energy), however, came in lower at 6.5% YoY in Feb-23 versus 6.6% in Jan-23.
While imported inflation (weightage =10%) stood at a three-month low of 6.9% YoY, domestically generated inflation rose to 6.4% YoY in Feb-23 versus 6.2% in Jan-23.
CPI in services remained unchanged at 5.1% YoY and that in goods inched down to 6.8% YoY in Feb-23 versus 5.9% in Jan-23.
Energy inflation came in at a four month low of 7.8% YoY in Feb-23 versus 8.6% in Jan-23.
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