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Putin Keeps Suspense, Mulls Recognizing Ukraine Separatists

Putin Keeps Suspense, Mulls Recognizing Ukraine Separatists

Russian President Vladimir Putin left the world guessing at his intentions -- at least for a few hours -- as he delayed revealing his decision Monday on whether to recognize Ukrainian separatists, in a move that could dramatically escalate tensions with the West.

“We see the threats and blackmail from our Western colleagues, we understand what such a step entails,” Putin said. 

In an unusual televised session of Russia’s Security Council, one top official after another took the podium in the Kremlin’s ornate St. Catherine Hall to tell the president why the time had come to become the first country in the world to formally acknowledge the self-proclaimed separatist entities Moscow has backed since their formation in 2014. A couple of officials suggested giving the U.S. a few days to pressure Ukraine to give in to Russia’s demands on implementing a peace deal, but most held out little hope for talks.

Putin Keeps Suspense, Mulls Recognizing Ukraine Separatists

Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said his government had been preparing for the decision -- and the sanctions and other economic penalties it would likely incur from the U.S. and its allies -- for months and was ready to handle the burden. Russian stock prices plunged.

After several rounds of comments, Putin, sitting alone across the room at a gold-encrusted desk, said he would make a decision later in the day and state television abruptly cut off the feed. Hours later, state-run Tass news service reported Putin plans a televised address to the nation later Monday.

In the interim, members of parliament were interviewed saying they’re confident that Putin will recognize the separatist republics, potentially including Ukrainian territory beyond what the breakaway authorities now control, adding to potential tensions.

The session appeared to go off script at times, such as when Foreign Intelligence Service Chief Sergey Naryshkin advocated annexing the territories, prompting Putin to remind him that’s not on the agenda. 

Still, the meeting offered a collection of the views of some of the hardline officials now close to Putin. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu told the gathering that Ukraine was a greater risk for obtaining nuclear weapons than Iran or North Korea. (Ukraine’s president said over the weekend the country might need to reconsider its non-nuclear status if the West couldn’t protect it.)

On a day when Putin had spoken with the president of France and was set to talk to the German chancellor, Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of the Security Council, said there was no point in bothering to negotiate with European leaders because “the main negotiator you need to talk to is the States.”

After speaking to Putin, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz condemned the plans for recognizing the separatists, according to his spokesman.

The officials at the Kremlin meeting were also dismissive of the prospect of a summit between Putin and U.S. President Joe Biden proposed to the Kremlin leader in a pair of phone calls by French President Emmanuel Macron Sunday and early Monday. “They won’t say what subjects they want to discuss,” Patrushev said. “Just a meeting to talk and say that we’re in dialogue.”

Even as he joined the chorus in support of recognition, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov continued diplomacy, speaking by phone with his French and German counterparts Monday and confirming a meeting Thursday in Geneva with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. 

As recently as last week, the Kremlin said it wouldn’t go ahead with recognition as it would breach peace agreements mediated by France and Germany that have been largely stalled since they were reached in 2014-15. But Moscow had rejected calls from the U.S. and its allies to pull back what Western officials say is a buildup of more than 150,000 troops near Ukraine’s borders.

The escalating crisis, which has sparked fears of the biggest conflict in Europe since World War II, comes as Russia has issued sweeping security demands including a halt to NATO eastward expansion and the alliance’s military ties with Ukraine. Russian officials say they have no plans to invade.

The leaders of the self-declared People’s Republic of Donetsk and People’s Republic of Luhansk appealed to Putin live on Russian state television Monday shortly before the session was broadcast to recognize their independence and sign defense cooperation agreements. 

But when the Kremlin session was broadcast, officials’ watches showed time that was several hours earlier and there was no “live” notice on the screen.

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.