Historic Factors May Be An Impediment To Hindutva In Karnataka: James Manor
Modi's campaign will win some support, but the state has showed that they are perceptive, sophisticated and wide awake: Manor
James Manor from the School of Advanced studies at the University of London, U.K. has been long-time observer of politics and society in Karnataka. In this interview, he shared his thoughts with BQ Prime’s Executive Editor TM Veeraraghav on the elections in the state:
Much has been made about the continued projection of BS Yeddyurappa by the Bharatiya Janata Party, even after he announced retirement from electoral politics. Is this because the BJP has no other leader in the state? Or is it because the party’s Hindutva narrative has failed to gain momentum and it has to consolidate on the Lingayat narrative?
James Manor: By giving Yediyurappa prominence, the BJP seeks to retain Lingayat support after what is perceived to be a failure by Chief Minister Bommai to inspire enough enthusiasm among his fellow Lingayats.
This is meant to combine an appeal on caste grounds with the BJP's very robust effort to arouse enmity between Hindus and minorities. It is not necessarily a sign that they believe that polarising has failed. We will only know how successful it has been when the election result emerges, along with surveys that reveal why people voted as they did. Using a caste based appeal may be an alternative to polarisation, or an add-on to it.
Is there a reason, one above all, why hardline Hindutva has, so far, only had a pocketed impact in Karnataka and has not become the overarching narrative, like in Uttar Pradesh?
James Manor: If the attempt to create communal divisions falls short, except in a few pockets where it has found traction in earlier years, the explanation will be complex. In part, it will owe something to the moderate approach to minorities, especially Muslims, by Yediyurappa, all through the many years when he led the BJP in Karnataka.
He always made efforts to reassure Muslims that they would be protected -- partly because he did not believe that polarisation would have broad support. So, for the BJP, the recent drive to polarise is new and unfamiliar to voters, which may limit its appeal.
But another part of the explanation requires us to look more deeply into the political culture of the state, and its material underpinnings. In much of Karnataka, land was more evenly distributed than in other Indian regions, so that landlessness was less widespread. Many members of disadvantaged groups -- whether we mean 'lower' Hindu castes or Muslims -- therefore had at least some minimal economic resources and autonomy. As a result, caste hierarchies in much of Karnataka were less steep and less harsh than in many other states, and communal relations were less bitter.
Then from 1972 onward, Devaraj Urs made politics more inclusive of these disadvantaged groups -- so that politics, like social interactions, became more moderate and marked by a spirit of compromise and bargaining. That history is an impediment to any effort at communal polarisation.
There is also a national versus local narrative emerging with the enormous focus on the campaign of the Prime Minister in this election. Can he have a decisive impact in this state election?
James Manor: Modi's campaigning will win the BJP some support, but the state's voters have long -- at least since 1983 -- showed that they are perceptive, sophisticated and wide awake. They will see that despite any excitement that Modi creates, he will stay in New Delhi and they will be left facing the state BJP leadership. It would therefore be surprising if Modi's participation turned the tide for the BJP. And in at least one earlier election, the BJP failed to win in many areas where Modi had campaigned.
What do you think of the JD(S) position now, do you see them playing a significant role or are they struggling to stay relevant?
James Manor: The JD-S has often appeared to be in danger in the southern districts where they have been strong. That is true again this time, after they have suffered several defections to other parties by leaders who resent the emphasis on H.D. Deve Gowda's family. But as some polling suggests, they may still win a respectable number of seats -- perhaps 20-24. This election is sometimes seen as Deve Gowda's last -- and that gives the party an emotional appeal. It is also unclear how much Mr. Shivakumar for Congress will be able to attract fellow Vokkaliga voters away from the JD-S. There are several unknowns here.
Do you foresee a period of instability after these polls or do you expect a clear verdict?
James Manor: The arithmetic after the results are announced will determine whether the state faces instability. If one party gains a majority, or something close to it, things may be fairly stable. If no party gets close to a majority, things could be more troubled -- in ways that they have been in the post. We must wait to see.