Presidential Election: Expect The Unexpected From Modi
Sending the right signal, weighing caste-community options, breaking geographical barriers, appealing to a particular constituency – these were the criteria which used to be carefully considered while deciding the candidature for a presidential election. Not in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s scheme of things.
As for the possible names, it is too risky a business for the simple reason that no one has a clue other than the Prime Minister himself and Bharatiya Janata Party President Amit Shah. Inputs must have come from Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh chief Mohan Bhagwat. It is very likely that some names would have been discussed.
What we can say with certainty though is that the potential candidate will have a distinct Modi stamp. The selection must achieve two objectives – it must convey that Modi is a smart thinker and that he and he alone can find such a suitable person who furthers the Modi vision. In that sense, it is more about what Modi wants to convey, than what the possible candidate symbolises. And Modi’s objective is crystal clear, that the selection should amplify his core politics of reaching out to the masses, the poor and the downtrodden. Of course, with a view to reaping electoral dividend in subsequent elections.
Modi’s Unconventional Convention
If we apply the yardstick of conventional wisdom now, a presidential candidate must tick the following boxes – the person should represent, or can be identified with, the poor; belongs to depressed communities; or is from a backward region.
If the same person can help expand the saffron agenda, well and good. The Sangh Parivar never had it so good. Absolute power and getting good traction, there is no pressure to look for something else other than the right wing, nationalist and Hindutva-type. So, yet another chance to say that emphatically.
There is another metric which is being debated - the intellectual, technocrat (à la APJ Abdul Kalam) eminent citizen type. However, looking at political and electoral needs, this is highly unlikely. Some speculate that one more consideration can be that a South-Indian name should be propped up where the BJP still has to travel a long way to make significant inroads. Venkaiah Naidu’s name was in circulation but now that the BJP has made him part of the search committee to find a candidate, he seems to be out of the race. Maharashtra Governor C Vidyasagar Rao’s name has also come up in Delhi’s political circle as one of the possible names.
Will Sushma Swaraj Get The Nod?
BJP veteran LK Advani’s name seems to be a highly logical choice and is pregnant with the powerful symbolism of some sort of “guru dakshina” by Modi. But Advani seems to be out of the race. Some well-wishers like Shatrughan Sinha have been bringing up his name, but not many see this as the likely outcome. Most observers are convinced that the first set of consideration will prevail which is tribal/dalit/poor/woman metrics.
Jharkhand Governor Draupadi Murmu’s name has been in the reckoning for a long time. Among women contenders, Sushma Swaraj’s name is also being talked about.
She has the experience, the gravitas, the power of oratory and the persona. So all boxes get tick marked in her case. She looks a very suitable choice for Rashtrapati Bhawan whose occupant has to do a lot of globetrotting. Her chemistry with Modi has been a matter of debate in the past, but she is now credited with working hard and silently for a very high-profile globetrotting Modi.
The electoral college numbers are stacked in a manner where getting the National Democratic Alliance candidate elected is not a challenge. There is some shortfall, which can be managed by getting smaller parties like the YSR Congress on board. Independents will be on board too and don’t be surprised if some Members of Parliament and Members of Legislative Assemblies from the opposition camp also vote for the NDA candidate. There is no whip, so no action can be taken against such cross-overs. Despite having comfortable numbers, the BJP has started to consult the opposition to “look for a consensus choice”. This has been the convention, so following it is seen as being politically correct.
Expect The Unexpected
The BJP’s best case scenario is to get some non-NDA parties to come along, further isolating the Congress. Remember Nitish Kumar’s comment on the choice for the next President. He said he may support a candidate who has faith in the Constitution. What he meant was that if the NDA doesn’t field a rabid Hindutva kind of person, he may consider supporting him. Nitish had supported Pranab Mukherjee in 2012.
The opposition parties know that fighting the presidential election is a mere formality, but this has provided them an opportunity to come and sit together amidst an otherwise tired and lacklustre performance by them so far.
Still, the names which are doing rounds as the opposition’s candidates range from Manmohan Singh and Sharad Pawar to Sharad Yadav to Gopalkrishna Gandhi. A symbolic fight is good to have, there’s no chance of winning but at least it will get them a bit active, which may help them to talk about the 2019 elections.
As far as Modi’s strategy about 2019 polls is concerned, he seems to be way ahead. The Presidential election is one more important event for him which must feed into, and strengthen, his key objective – maximise the electoral advantage. The choice will solely be dictated by this yardstick, but in a manner that is typical Modi. There are many more names doing the rounds but hazarding a guess is too risky. The names discussed here are only to underline the main logic or metrics he is going to apply. Modi loves to surprise all stakeholders in public life. Let us be prepared for a name that will surprise, shock or awe. My informed guess, therefore, is – expect the unexpected.
Sanjay Pugalia is Editorial Director at BloombergQuint.