Maharashtra MLC Polls Setback Shows BJP-Shinde May Not Have It Easy In BMC And 2024

The BJP-Shinde alliance could win only one out of five seats, while the MVA won three seats, and one seat was won by Congress rebel contesting as Independent in the recently held MLC polls in Maharashtra.

Maharashtra political activity is heating up ahead of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation elections, which are overdue and the general elections due next year. Recently, MLC elections were conducted for five seats, while by-polls for two Vidhan Sabha seats will be held in month-end.

Both the Shiv Sena factions, one led by Uddhav Thackeray and another by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, have submitted their final reply to the Election Commission, asserting their claim to the bow and arrow symbol of their erstwhile party, verdict awaited.

Meanwhile, Congress party’s legislature party leader Balasaheb Thorat has resigned due to differences with state chief Nana Patole. It’s all happening in Maharashtra.  

Maharashtra sends the second highest number of MPs to Parliament and is very important in the scheme of things for BJP’s bid to retain power in 2024. BJP had won 23 seats and its estranged ally Shiv Sena 18 seats sweeping the state.

In the first electoral test of the Shinde-Fadnavis government in Maharashtra, the Opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) comprising of Congress, Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party and Uddhav Thackeray faction of Shiv Sena, won three of the five graduate and teachers’ legislative council seats.

The BJP, in a major upset, lost the Nagpur seat—the home turf of deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and Union minister Nitin Gadkari—as well as in one more Vidarbha seat of Amravati. The BJP, however, won the Konkan seat, the stronghold of Shiv Sena (UBT), while Congress rebel and independent candidate Satyajeet Tambe won the Nashik seat. 

General voters do not vote in these polls—only teachers and graduates can cast their votes, and that, too, they need to register as voters. So, turnout is usually low. However, normally the party which is in power has an advantage in these polls due to obvious reasons. The setback may force BJP-Shinde alliance to rethink their stand on the Old Pension Scheme, which was made a big election issue by the MVA. 

Two seats in Pune, Kasbapeth and Chinchwad, are going for by-polls as their representatives passed away recently. Both these seats are held by the BJP, which requested the MVA not to field candidates on compassionate grounds.

However, MVA has decided not to reciprocate the gesture of BJP in Andheri East by-poll in October 2022. Congress is contesting from Kasba, while NCP from Chinchwad. In by-polls, normally incumbent has the upper hand. In this case, BJP is likely to benefit also from a sympathy factor which is difficult to factor in calculations. While in Chinchwad, BJP has named member of Jagtap family (deceased MLA), in Kasbapeth, it has nominated a new candidate. 

All eyes are on these polls though, as it is the first time the two factions of Shiv Sena will be fighting it out in the Vidhan Sabha polls.

Some key questions could be answered in these by-polls:

• Can MVA snatch one of the seats? 

• Can it reduce the margin, thus proving Shiv Sena (UBT) can transfer its votes to allies INC-NCP? 

• How much of votes is Shiv Sena (UBT) able to pull from BJP vote share? This will show the relative strength of Shinde and Uddhav factions.

• While Shinde has MLAs on his side, who enjoys the support of the Shiv Sainik?

These questions and results of by-polls have huge ramifications for BMC polls and 2024 general elections. 

The BMC elections are overdue for around a year now. United Shiv Sena and BJP had contested the polls separately in February 2017, with BJP falling short of Shiv Sena by just three corporators.

Mumbai is a stronghold of the Thackeray family. Shiv Sena has consistently occupied the Mayoral position in the city since 1996-97, for 25 years now. 60% of the MLAs with Uddhav belong to Mumbai. Of the 14 Shiv Sena MLAs from Mumbai, nine are with Uddhav and five with Shinde. Shiv Sena has an extensive network of shakhas in the city. Eknath Shinde is considered a leader of Thane and Konkan, and not Mumbai. 

BJP wishes to severely damage Thackeray family clout by winning the BMC polls, which it lost by a whisker in 2017. However, it is not that confident of how much damage the Shinde camp will make to Uddhav in Mumbai. Shiv Sena (UBT) has roped in Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Agadi (VBA) to solidify the Dalit vote behind it. The party hopes sympathy and respect for Thackeray family will help it trump BJP-Shinde alliance with Congress and NCP as allies. BJP is likely to tie up with Raj Thackeray’s MNS, whose clout has reduced significantly in the city after 2017 polls. A fierce/competitive battle lies ahead.  

BJP swept 41 out of 48 seats with the Sena in 2019, bagging 51% vote share against 32% of INC-NCP alliance. Now, the tally may reduce in 2024 unless Shinde faction takes over all the support/voters from Thackeray family (23.5% vote share), which is highly improbable. On paper, the INC+NCP+Shiv Sena (UBT) alliance looks strong. India Today Mood of the Nation projects 35 seats for MVA if elections are held today. Along with VBA, which bagged 7% vote share, Shiv Sena (UBT) hopes to negate some of the losses due to Shinde factor. 

However, the thing which could work in BJP’s favour and help it neutralise some of the losses is the Modi factor. As per the CSDS survey, 25% of votes which BJP’s allies received was on account of the Modi factor. While the opposition MVA would try to localise the elections, a national election can’t be fully localised. That’s the catch. 

An interesting and uncertain 12 to 15 months in Maharashtra politics, followed by the state elections in October-November next year unless simultaneously held with general elections. 

Amitabh Tiwari is a political commentator, strategist, and consultant advising political parties and leaders. He was previously a corporate and investment banker.

The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of BQ Prime or its editorial team.