BJP Creates A Record In Gujarat Riding On HNM Factor

The BJP led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has won a record mandate in his home state Gujarat, winning 156 seats (+57). While the Congress has been decimated to 17 (-60), the newbie AAP managed a decent performance (5) but much lower than its claims.

In terms of vote share, the BJP won 53% (+4%), while the Congress got 27% (-14%). The AAP with 13% gained largely at the expense of the Congress and is responsible for its worst performance in the state.

In 2017, the Congress won 29 seats with less than 5% vote share margin. With AAP denting it in these seats this time, the Congress has been able to retain just one such seat.

PM Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah held multiple rallies and roadshows, which some analysts hinted showed nervousness as AAP mounted a high-decibel campaign. But as top election strategists of the country, the Modi-Shah duo smelled an opportunity to break their own record of 127 seats or even dared to think of bettering Madhav Singh Solanki’s record of 149 seats as AAP threatened to split the opposition vote.

The BJP dominated all the four regions of the state—Saurashtra (including Kutch) with 54 seats; North 32 seats; Central 61 seats; and South 35 seats. It has broken into the northern citadel of the Congress, which the party led even in 2012 and 2017. The BJP, on its part, gave an equal number of tickets (18) to the influential Thakor community in its bid to make a dent in this Congress stronghold and it seems to have paid off.

The Congress also failed to maintain the momentum it received in 2017 in Saurashtra from the Patidar agitation. A section of Patidars, along with farmers facing economic distress, had backed the party the last time. However, with reservations for Economically Weaker Sections of society, the BJP managed to defuse the agitation.

In the South which includes 16 seats from Surat, the Congress had presence mainly in the ST reserved seats, and only the party’s star candidate and Adivasi rights activist has won from here. AAP has been able to make a dent in its vote due to its promise of implementing the Panchayat (Extension to Scheduled Areas) Act.

The BJP swept the ST reserved seats across state, winning in 23 out of 27 constituencies. INC had won 15 in 2017.

The Congress has been routed in the Centre, which includes urban centres of Ahmedabad and Varodara as well as rural areas of Anand-Kheda district where the party had fared well in 2017. A section of Patels has moved away from the Congress, the BJP seems to have made a significant dent in OBC-Kshatriya vote and AAP played spoilsport by bagging some of the minority votes.

BJP’s cocktail of Hindutva, nationalism and Modi (HNM) propelled it to a record victory, silencing all talk of anti-incumbency. High levels of urbanisation and high per capita income than the national average means that national issues and leadership play an important role in urban/semi urban areas, which house 73 seats in the state. BJP’s presidential style campaign also appeals to this aspirational voter.

While the BJP has traditionally been strong in urban and the Congress in rural areas, the AAP damaged the Congress this time by winning four of its five seats from rural areas.

The AAP went about methodically in this election. With factionalism in the local Congress unit and elections for president taking place during the polls, AAP targeted the core vote block of the Congress comprising of Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes and minorities. These three categories account for a third of Gujarat population. The caste-wise support for AAP, according to the C-Voter exit poll, shows that it got 20% of SC, 18% of ST and 30% of the minority vote. AAP polled 7% vote share from these three communities itself, almost half of its total vote share.

While the SCs were attracted by the so-called freebies and the Delhi model of governance, the youth among the minorities felt that a weakened Congress is not in position to challenge the BJP. This despite the fact that AAP didn’t raise the release of Bilkis Bano rape culprits and also adopted a soft Hindutva approach by calling for photos of Hindu deities on currency notes.

Kejriwal openly called out that voting for the Congress is a waste as its MLAs would later join the BJP, a trend witnessed in Gujarat for many years. This seems to have confused the anti-BJP/opposition voters leading to a lower turnout (-5% overall). Low turnouts generally favour the incumbent. This was witnessed even in 2017 when the BJP scraped through.

With this record victory, the BJP seizes the momentum going into the 2024 national election, which is 15 months away. Gujarat has been turned into a party state, a fortress where the BJP is difficult to dislodge. However, AAP’s presence in the assembly means that it will continue to make noise inside and outside the legislature and attempt to expose chinks in BJP’s armour.

If the Congress doesn’t fix its problems in the state soon, AAP could further make inroads in its vote bank in the general election. The BJP, meanwhile, will have to juggle with the question of who is its main competitor and will also have to dedicate resources to counter AAP in the state.

Amitabh Tiwari is a political commentator, strategist, and consultant advising political parties and leaders. He was previously a corporate and investment banker.

The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of BQ Prime or its editorial team.