India Likely To Witness Normal Monsoon In 2024: Skymet Weather
Skymet also forecasted good rainfall in the south, west, and northwest of India during the monsoon.
Skymet Weather Services Pvt. said on Tuesday that this year's southwest monsoon, which lasts from June to September, would likely be normal. The private weather forecasting agency estimates it to be around 102% of the long-term average, with a margin of error of 5% on either side. The spread of normal monsoon is between 96% and 104% of the long-period average.
The weather phenomenon known as El Nino is changing to La Nina, which tends to bring stronger monsoon rain. This transition may cause some problems at the beginning of the season due to the remnants of El Nino, but the latter part of the season should be better, Skymet said in a release.
Apart from El Nino and La Nina, other factors like the Indian Ocean Dipole also influence the monsoon. A positive IOD combined with La Nina is expected to improve monsoon prospects. However, the start of the season may be affected by the quick change from El Nino to La Nina, and rainfall distribution might not be even throughout the season, according to Skymet.
It has forecasted good rainfall in the south, west, and northwest of India. However, places like Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, West Bengal and the northeast might experience lower-than-normal rain during the peak monsoon months.
Rainfall in June is expected to be around 95% of the LPA, with July seeing about 105%. These estimates come with probabilities of being normal, above normal, or below normal, it said.
Earlier, the India Meteorological Department announced that the country is expected to encounter extreme weather conditions this year. Above-normal maximum temperatures are predicted over much of the country, from April to June.