Saudis Signal Oil Market Will Stay Tight With Price Hike
Saudi Aramco increased its Arab Light grade to $9.80 a barrel above the Middle Eastern benchmark, 50 cents more than in August.
Saudi Arabia raised oil prices for buyers in Asia to record levels, a sign the world’s largest exporter sees the region’s market remaining tight.
Despite indications that slowing economies are starting to hit global demand for crude, state producer Saudi Aramco increased its key Arab Light grade for next month’s shipments to Asian refineries to $9.80 a barrel above the Middle Eastern benchmark. That’s 50 cents more than in August.
Traders and refiners had expected a bigger jump of $1.50, according to a Bloomberg survey in late July. That was before data emerged this week showing that Americans are driving less than they did in the summer of 2020, when coronavirus travel curbs all but halted movement.
Yet many major oil producers are facing supply problems, leaving the market tight. Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said this week that demand exceeds output by around 2 million barrels a day. Consumption in many Asian countries is continuing to recover from pandemic lockdowns.
“Look at demand outside the US -- India is scorching,” Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Advisers, said to Bloomberg Television on Thursday. “China, we think, is growing strongly.”
US Prices Raised
Aramco also increased prices for all US grades, in what was the company’s first change for American customers since May.
For Europe, Aramco lowered light crude varieties and raised medium and heavy types.
The decision came a day after OPEC+—led by Saudi Arabia and Russia—responded to months of diplomatic efforts from the US for more oil with one of the smallest production increases in its history.
Oil still fell on Wednesday, with Brent sinking almost 4% to below $100 a barrel, following the US data and as production in Libya recovered. It dropped further to around $95 on Thursday.
Growing concern about the possibility of recessions in the US and Europe has seen crude slump from around $130 a barrel in the wake of Russia’s attack on Ukraine in February.
Crack Spreads Drop
Saudi Arabia sells most of its oil to Asia. China, India, South Korea and Japan are the biggest buyers.
Aramco’s monthly pricing decisions are seen as a bellwether of the oil market and are often followed by similar moves from other major Persian Gulf producers.
The Saudi company increased prices for heavy grades more than those for lighter ones. Heavier varieties tend to be made into fuels such as diesel, while light oil yields more gasoline.
The margins, or crack spreads, that Asian refiners get from turning crude into gasoline have slumped almost 78% from record levels in late June. Those for diesel have fallen by around half as much, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
(Updates from fourth with comments on supply shortage.)
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