Robust, Optimistic, Conservative: What Experts Made Of Economic Survey 2021-22

According to Economic Survey 2021-22, India’s gross domestic product is expected to grow 8-8.5% in the upcoming financial year aided by widespread vaccine coverage, gains from supply-side reforms and easing of regulations, robust export growth, and availability of fiscal space to ramp up capital spending.

The government also expects private sector investment to pickup as the financial system is in a good position to support economic recovery.

This projection, according to the survey, is based on the assumption that there will be no further debilitating pandemic-related economic disruptions, monsoon will be normal, withdrawal of global liquidity by major central banks will be broadly orderly, oil prices will be in the range of $70-75 a barrel, and global supply chain disruptions will steadily ease over the course of the year.

Here's what experts had to say about the Economic Survey 2021-22:

Naveen Kulkarni

Chief Investment Officer, Axis Securities

The economic growth projections for FY23 look very robust. A reasonably strong nominal GDP growth means we're looking at a healthy next fiscal year. This will also mean that tax collections will continue to remain robust and economic revival will gain further traction. Based on these projections, we remain very constructive on the future prospects.

Indranil Pan

Chief Economist, Yes Bank

The economic survey painted India in an optimistic light with good macro-stability indicators touted as a buffer against the uncertain global environment. The response of the policy makers to Covid-19 has been mostly in the form of supply-side measures rather than a Keynesian demand push. A flexible policy approach has enabled steady the ship and also provide India with a bounce pad to emerge back on a strong footing. A stronger bounce to private investments is envisaged with healthier balance sheets—both for corporates and banks.

The survey highlighted that India's well placed to achieve an 8.0-8.5% real growth in FY23 even as tackling the imperatives of high global energy prices remains a critical challenge. Given this high real growth, it remains to be seen what nominal growth is assumed for drafting the budget as this will have an implication on the revenue generation assumptions.

Rajani Sinha

Chief Economist and National Director-Research, Knight Frank India

The economic survey’s GDP growth projection of 8-8.5% for FY23 is quite conservative and lower than that projected by International Monetary Fund. The survey has explained in detail the government’s approach to handling this once in a century pandemic induced crisis. It talks in detail about the ‘Agile’ approach that the government has been adopting, which basically implies tracking closely the high frequency economic indicators and tweaking the government’s response on a real-time basis as the crisis unfolds.

Apart from discussing in detail the sectoral developments and policy implementations, the survey very aptly talks in detail about the developments on social parameters of health and education. There's also a detailed discussion on sustainable economic growth. The economic survey has very aptly discussed in detail the current issues for the Indian economy. Now, the critical aspect would be how central and state governments handle many of these issues going forward.

Arun M Kumar

Chairman And CEO, KPMG India

The survey projects India’s growth for FY23 at 8-8.5% based on extensive vaccine coverage, gains from supply-side reforms, easing of process friction, and expected robust export growth. A reasonable, upbeat outlook that should be caveated by exogenous factors like geopolitical tensions and global oil prices.

Madhavi Arora

Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services

The survey laid out the background for budget to be released tomorrow. It reckons that the upcoming budget faces acute policy trade-offs between nurturing a nascent growth recovery and diminishing fiscal space with challenging debt dynamics. Policymakers should ensure the fiscal impulse is maximised to improve potential growth, while signaling adherence to medium-term fiscal sustainability.

This entails continued financial sector reforms, better resource allocation, and funding by aggressive asset sales via functional infrastructure monetisation, divestment/strategic sales.The economic survey expects India’s GDP to grow 8-8.5% in FY23 after 9.25 in FY22, led by widespread vaccine coverage, gains from supply-side reforms and easing of regulations, robust export growth, and availability of fiscal space to ramp up capital spending. However, the baseline assumption is stable global financial markets with orderly G-4 policy normalisation and well behaved oil market ($70-$75 a barrel), and easing global supply chain disruptions.

Sanjeev Krishan

Chairman, PwC In India

Economic Survey 2021–22 pegs India’s real GDP growth to be around 8–8.5% in 2022–23. This would uplift the country’s mood as this growth is not coming on a low base. Advance estimates already suggest a real GDP growth of 9.2% in 2021–22. On a pre-Covid base of 2019–20, this would be tantamount to 10% growth. While the economic survey acknowledges the prevailing uncertainty and the slippery slope ahead, the growth projection certainly reflects the resilience that is built in through major supply-side structural and process reforms.