Heat Waves, El Nino Pose Threat To India's Agriculture: Skymet President

As India witnesses sudden heat waves across states in the month of February, it could signal a weaker crop yield, according to Skymet Weather Services.

A possible El Nino condition later in the year could also disrupt the country's agriculture, the weather forecasting service said.

February temperatures have soared 6–10 degrees above normal, GP Sharma, president of Skymet Weather Services Pvt., told BQ Prime.

The spring season, which is a cushion between summer and winter season, has also been cut short with this rapid increase in temperature, Sharma said.

Any variable, or change in weather conditions before its time, impacts agriculture largely, the climate change expert said.

Right now, the rabi crops require cool weather conditions. But instead, heat stresses are building up across these crops, Sharma said. "This will show up in the total yield of the crop."

Cash crops like wheat face the biggest risk from weather change, and mustard crops are also at stake due to harsh weather conditions, he said.

These crops are prevalent not only in the northern plains, but also in some parts of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, which are now also at risk.

For the last three years, the country has been traversing through a La Nina condition and it has become used to it. But this weather condition is coming to an end very soon, Sharma said.

"In the next four to six weeks, I expect it to become firstly neutral—as it happens in the months of April and beginning of May—and thereafter gradually, there are indications that it is building up towards an El Nino condition."

These rapid changes are not expected in the sea surface temperatures. Seas are always slow to respond to heat or cold, according to Sharma.

A gradual onset of the El Nino condition could spoil the monsoon season, he said.

The temperatures in the Pacific are reversing. "From cool Pacific, it is turning to tropical warm Pacific and that is what the indications are for the El Nino conditions coming up."

But these conditions will begin at the start of the monsoon, sometime in June, which will go on to become more stringent. That is where the danger lies, Sharma said.

According to Sharma, El Nino will largely impact the northern and central parts of India, while there will be minimal impact on north-eastern parts followed by the southern peninsula.

The northern and central regions contribute majorly towards growing crops and with the El Nino conditions, that will be impacted.

"Harshest summers can be expected, rains could be deficit, spatial-timed distribution as well, " he said. Still, it is a little too early to give a forecast about El Nino, he said.

Accurate predictions for El Nino could be determined in April, Sharma said.