Economic Survey 2023 Highlights: Expect Inflation To Be Well Behaved In FY24, Says CEA Nageswaran
Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran is set to address a press conference at 2 p.m.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
CEA Nageswaran On Inflation
Don't see inflation as big a problem as in FY22.
Expect inflation to be well behaved in FY24.
Source: CEA Press Conference
CEA Nageswaran On Global Oil Prices
As long as oil stays below $100 per barrel, real GDP growth projections will remain undisturbed.
Difficult to project trajectory of oil price.
Source: CEA Press Conference
Must Ensure Women's Participation In Economic Activity, Says CEA Nageswaran
Must make sure that women are able to contribute to economic productivity, activity as they are capable of.
Must ensure that MSME sector becomes more formalised.
Skilling and education under new policy must be pursued.
Source: CEA Press Conference
CEA Nageswaran. (Source: PIB India)
Global Political, Economic Environment Remains Rife With Uncertainty, Says CEA Nageswaran
China reopened fairly rapidly, U.S. looks set to avoid full-fledged recession as of now.
Moderate to significant global slowdown would be a better outcome for India on balance.
Global slowdown would lead to easing commodity prices, monetary policy.
Source: CEA Press Conference
India's Economic Momentum Continuing, Says CEA Nageswaran
Economic momentum is continuing as per data available for July-September.
Air passenger, cargo traffic now running at 90% of pre-pandemic levels.
Source: CEA Press Conference
India Ahead Of Renewable Energy Targets, Says CEA
India well ahead of target of renewable energy contribution in production mix.
Source: CEA Press Conference
CEA Nageswaran On PLI Schemes
Product-linked incentive schemes takes a portfolio approach.
No payment of incentive under PLI scheme happens until after units perform.
If companies don’t produce under PLI, they don’t get incentive.
PLI payment is against performance, not in anticipation of performance.
Source: CEA Press Conference
India Sees An Opening In The Global Supply Chain, Says Chief Economic Adviser
Today, India sees an opening in the global supply chain.
Countries are willing to diversify because of pandemic, political reasons.
I would say that India has not industrialised enough rather than having de-industrialised.
Source: CEA Press Conference
CEA Nageswaran On Private Sector Participation
Tax cuts of 2019 helped private sector improve balance sheets.
PLI schemes are an important strategic decision.
As private sector investment kicks in, construction sector comes to life, employment scenario will improve.
Evidence of health of micro sectors is the steadiness of GST payments.
Source: CEA Press Conference
India Stack Effect
Formal study of contribution of digital infrastructure is yet to be done.
Believe that India’s improved balance sheets, digital infra to add 60-100 bps to India’s potential GDP growth.
New development public digital infra is adding another 30-50 bps to potential GDP growth.
Source: CEA Press Conference
Export Competitiveness Hampered By Higher Logistics Costs, Says CEA Nageswaran
India's export competitiveness was hampered by higher logistics cost and the government's National Logistics Policy will play a part in halving logistics costs.CEA Anantha Nageswaran
Enough Scope For Fiscal Parameters To Improve, Says Chief Economic Adviser
There is enough scope for fiscal parameters to improve in coming years.
India’s fiscal parameters will improve once we achieve sustained growth.
Source: CEA Press Conference
Quality Of Government’s Expenditure Has Gone Up: CEA
The government has become more transparent on Budget deficit number
The government is making procurement more transparent
Source: CEA Press Conference
Agriculture Sector Has Tremendous Export Potential, Says CEA Nageswaran
Share of private sector investment in agriculture has increased over past 12 years
Source: CEA Press Conference
Banks' Non-Performing Ratios Are Lower Now, Says CEA Nageswaran
You can see that banks have undertaken recapitalisation, increased provisions
Credit growth across sectors is sustainably in double digits
This credit growth was missing in the second half of the last decade
Source: CEA Press Conference
We Don’t Have To Talk About Pandemic Recovery Anymore, Says CEA Nageswaran
We have banking, non-banking and corporate sectors with strong balance sheets
Must look forward to the next phase of India’s economic growth process.
Source: CEA Press Conference
CEA Nageswaran Arrives At Press Conference
(Source: PIB)
Economic Survey Highlights: GDP Forecast For FY24 To Be In The Range Of 6-6.8%
Recovering from pandemic-induced contraction, Russian-Ukraine conflict and inflation, the Indian economy is staging a broad based recovery across sectors, positioning to ascend to the pre-pandemic growth path in FY23.
India's GDP growth is expected to remain robust in FY24. GDP forecast for FY24 to be in the range of 6-6.8%.
Source: Highlights, Economic Survey 2022-23
Economic Survey Highlights: India's Growth Outlook Seems Better Than In Pre-Pandemic Years
India's growth outlook seems better than in the pre-pandemic years, with the Indian economy prepared to grow at its potential in the medium term.
Indian economy underwent wide-ranging structural and governance reforms that strengthened the economy's fundamentals by enhancing its overall efficiency during 2014-2022.
The Indian economy is well placed to grow faster in the coming decade once the global shocks of the pandemic and the spike in commodity prices in 2022 fade away.
Source: Highlights, Economic Survey 2022-23
Economic Survey Highlights: Increase In Capex Has Large-Scale Positive Implications
The Union Government finances showed resilience in FY23, facilitated by the recovery in economic activity, buoyancy in revenues from direct taxes and GST, and realistic assumptions in the Budget.
With an emphasis on infrastructure-intensive sectors, the increase in Capex has large-scale positive implications for medium-term growth.
The Government’s capex-led growth strategy will enable India to keep the growth-interest rate differential positive, leading to a sustainable debt to GDP in the medium run.
Source: Highlights, Economic Survey 2022-23
CEA Nageswaran Set To Address Press
Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran is set to address a press conference at 2 p.m. in New Delhi after the tabling of Economic Survey 2022-23 by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in Parliament.