Why Conducting Census Must Be A Top Priority
The 150-year-old history of census in India has many instances of conducting the exercise even in the most trying of times.
There is a hunch that the formalisation of India's economy has gained pace following the introduction of goods and services tax. Do we know the extent of it? No really, as exact pan-India data sets have not been updated for more than a decade.
Do we know how central and state governments’ multiple welfare schemes have fared at the ground level? The answer is the same: Where is the data to assess the same and reorient policies accordingly?
As we grapple with these and many other questions, we are staring at months and possibly years of delay in conducting census operations. According to a recent report in a leading business daily, the decennial exercise may not happen before the conclusion of 2024 Lok Sabha elections. In other words, it will be delayed by a good three and a half years, at the very least.
U.S., Many Other Countries Conducted Census Even During Pandemic
The 150-year-old history of census operations in India has many instances of conducting the exercise even in the most trying of times. They include the ones done in 1941 (the enumeration happened even then, but tabulation didn’t because of the second World War); 1961 when the threat of the Chinese aggression loomed around our borders and in 1971 even in the midst of Bangladesh’s liberation struggle.
The delay now, we are given to understand, has been caused by the Covid pandemic and disruptions it has caused throughout the world. As per the original schedule, the housing census was to take place in the middle of 2020 and the population count in February 2021. Then the pandemic happened causing disruptions.
According to the United Nations Population Fund, Census operations were scheduled to take place in as many as 150 countries in 2020 and 2021. While some postponed it, many others, including the United States, did go ahead with slight revision in the original schedule. According to the US census bureau, “in light of the COVID-19 outbreak, the U.S. Census Bureau adjusted 2020 Census operations in order to:
Protect the health and safety of the American public and Census Bureau employees.
Implement guidance from Federal, State, and local authorities regarding COVID-19.
Ensure a complete and accurate count of all communities.
We adapted or delayed some of our operations to protect the health and safety of our staff and the public and make sure we counted the nation's population.”
Many State Elections Did Take Place During Pandemic
It is not that all sorts of public outreach came to a grinding halt in the aftermath of the pandemic. We did conduct all-important elections in states like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Kerala, Assam, Punjab, Gujarat, Uttarakhand, and Himachal Pradesh since 2020. And many of them in the midst of a raging pandemic. The electioneering in these states involved very high levels of mass contacts. Covid protocols were never used as an excuse to stymie the democratic festivals. Why keep postponing census operations then?
Not having the updated socio-economic profile of the people has its own set of pitfalls. For governments, it means shooting in the dark about the demographic groups to be targeted for welfare schemes. For businesses, it means not having a full understanding of “where to open new stores, restaurants, factories, and offices; where to expand operations; where to recruit employees; and which products and services to offer”, as the US census bureau says. And for researchers and keen observers, outdated data mean absence of key inputs for postulation.
Investment In Building Data Culture Is Key
As India embarks on an ambitious journey of becoming a global power, it must work on building rich depositories of data, constantly updated by governments—federal and provincial—and ably supplemented by the private sector and think tanks.
India must invest heavily in developing a data culture. Holding timely census operations is key to that. For a country of our size and diversity, that is the only way to get some handle on issues facing the people. How else are we going to get a correct estimation of beneficiaries in mammoth welfare schemes like the national food security programme, Kisan Samman, and old-age pension schemes? What other avenues do we have to know that the deprived sections are getting a lift through targeted measures?
Population estimation is a key ingredient to centre’s grants to states and also the vital input for tax devolution done by the finance commissions. And in less than four years from now, we are set to embark on an ambitious delimitation exercise for Lok Sabha constituencies. Can we do any of these without the exact population count?
Shouldn’t the gaping hole therefore be plugged at the earliest?