Wheat To Vegetables, India's Heat Wave Set To Wilt Output For Key Crops

Brij Mohan Bhadu is a farmer in Pilibanga, in Rajasthan.

The ongoing heat wave means that what he grows on his farm is likely to yield less.

As he sees it, the channa crop will yield 50% less. Barley and wheat will yield about a quarter less, Bhadu tells BQ Prime over the phone. It is the same for vegetables. The mustard crop will yield about 5-10% lower than expected.

It's not just that. Even the shape and size of some of the grains differs, he says. This could impact the price the product can demand.

This summer is the hottest he has ever seen.

It is indeed. Some parts of India are the hottest they have been in over a 100 years. This unprecedented heat could exacerbate challenges to inflation and growth in India, Moody's Investors Service warned in a note dated May 23.

West Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, south Haryana, Delhi, west Madhya Pradesh and west Uttar Pradesh experienced a higher number of days where temperatures were more extreme than normal, according to the April weather and climate summary by India Meteorological Department.

For northwest and central India, this April was the hottest on record in the last 122 years. Average maximum temperature in the northwest rose to 36.32ºC, while rising to 38.04ºC in central India, the IMD said.

For the country as a whole, the average maximum temperature was the third highest on record at 35.30 ºC, along with a rise in the average mean and average minimum temperatures, it added.

The heat wave witnessed in India during February to April has impacted several field and horticultural crops, estimates Crisil.

While field crops like wheat and horticulture crops like mango have been worst hit, mustard, bajra, cumin, vegetables like tomato and okra have also been impacted, according to Pushan Sharma, director, Crisil Research.

Extremely high temperature in month of March also hurt summer crops like groundnut and bajra, leading to poor germination and vegetative growth of these crops, Sharma said.

Production of wheat is estimated at 106.4 million tonnes, according to the third advance estimates for 2021-22, published by the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmer's Welfare on May 19. This is a drop of 4.6% from the second advance estimates published in February this year.

In Punjab which contributes about 15% of total wheat production, yield is estimated to have declined by 5-6% year-on-year, according to estimates by Crisil.

"As per our on-ground interactions, in certain pockets of Punjab such as Patiala and Fatehgarh, the decline in yield has been estimated at 10-15% year-on-year," Sharma said. For Haryana, another major wheat-producing state contributing about 10% to total production, wheat yields are estimated to decline by about 4-5% on year. In Uttar Pradesh, that contributes about 30% of total output, the hit is not as bad.

Beyond wheat, the mango crop, especially in states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, has also been impacted. High temperature conditions during March coincided with peak flowering season, resulting in significant flower drops, Sharma said.

In Bihar, smaller fruit sizes have been reported. Overall mango yield from these northern states is estimated to decline by about 15-20% year-on-year in 2022, according to Crisil's estimates. "As per our on ground interactions, in certain pockets of Bihar, like Muzaffarpur and Bhagalpur, yield decline to the tune of about 25-30% has been reported," Sharma said.

Heat wave has also impacted crops like okra and tomato, he said.

Akhilesh Jain, co-founder at Agrotech India, said many horticulture crops such as spices, fruits, flower, aromatic & medicinal plants and plantation crops have also reported a decline in production in the current year.

Already, horticulture crops production sees huge losses of about 15-25% due to storage unavailability and post-harvest operations, Jain said. The lower output due to heat will only add to losses for the farmers.

The experience with extreme weather conditions this year may no longer be an outlier.

Tropical countries such as India will see agricultural yields fall over the years because of climate change, Amit Kar, principal scientist at the Indian Agricultural Research Institute, said.

In a government study under the National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture, rain-fed rice yields in India are projected to reduce by 2.5% in 2050 and 2080 and irrigated rice yields by 7% in 2050 and 10% in 2080.

Further, wheat yield is projected to reduce by 6-25% in 2100 and maize yields by 18-23%.

Chickpea is expected benefit from climate change, with productivity expected to increase by 23-54%.

The hit will not be equal. Based on a vulnerability analysis, 109 districts out of 573 rural districts in India are classified as ‘very high-risk’.

To counter some of the impact of hotter weather conditions, the Indian Agricultural Research Institute has released high-yielding varieties of wheat.

Not all farmers appear to be on board. Yields of heat-resistant varieties of wheat are lower, according to Bhadu. Moreover, they are more reliant on insecticides and pesticides and can only be used in areas that are well irrigated, he said.

Kar agreed that the impact of the current heat-resistant varieties is not sizeable for major crops, especially wheat.

In developing economies such as India, to reduce impact of heat waves, one can opt for inter-cropping with a heat tolerant crop, Jain said. Other solutions such as mulching, a technique which helps retain soil moisture, and affordable green houses can also be considered.

None of this will help in the near term, where both output and prices could be impacted by the heat wave conditions. This, in turn, has prompted the government to intervene via supply-side measures.

The drop in yields is inflationary for wheat and other related products, said Vedika Narvekar, research analyst for agro-commodities at Anand Rathi. "The government’s supply-side interventions, however, will help ease inflation in the coming months across food items."