Goldman’s Hatzius Sees No Fed Hike Next Year as Growth Slows
Slower U.S. economic growth next year will mean the Federal Reserve takes its time to raise interest rates, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s chief economist.
While tapering of asset purchases is expected to be announced at the Fed’s next meeting, that process will take months and interest rates won’t rise until 2023, Jan Hatzius told Bloomberg Television in an interview on Monday.
“What happens as you go into 2022 and I think that’s going to be a more cyclical slowdown narrative also with declines in inflation,” he told Tom Keene and Jonathan Ferro. “In that environment I don’t think they’re going to move directly to rate hikes” and any decision would be dependent on economic data.
The Federal Open Market Committee left interest rates near zero at its September meeting and said that starting to scale back the central bank’s $120 billion in monthly asset purchases “may soon be warranted” if the economy continued to progress. Chair Jerome Powell told reporters the process could start as s
oon as the Fed’s Nov. 2-3 meeting and the FOMC’s “substantial further progress” taper test for employment “is all but met.”
Data for September, published last week, showed nonfarm payrolls recording their smallest advance this year.
Goldman Sachs has cut its growth forecast for next year.
“In the near term I think there are some reasons to expect stronger growth,” he said. “Further on, I do think growth is going to be significantly slower.”
©2021 Bloomberg L.P.