Elections 2019 ‘State Of Play’: Tamil Nadu’s Game Of Musical Chairs

Tamil Nadu votes on April 18 in the second phase of the general elections. The state which sends 39 members to the Lok Sabha, accounting for 7 percent of the total 543 seats, is likely to play an important role in government formation at the centre. The state’s politics have been dominated by the two main Dravidian parties over the last 5 decades – the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. While AIADMK has sealed an alliance with BJP, DMK finalised a deal with Congress for the upcoming polls. This is the first election for AIADMK and DMK after the deaths of their respective iconic leaders – J Jayalalithaa and M Karunanidhi..Five Decades Of Dominance.In 1967, the DMK led by CN Annadurai handed the Indian National Congress its first defeat in the state. The then-United Front won 179 seats, gaining a massive 123, and the Congress dropped 88 seats to 51, in a 234-member house..The state has never seen a Congress government since then..In 1972, MG Ramachandran split from the DMK due to differences with Karunanidhi, and formed the AIADMK. In 1977 the two Dravidian parties competed with each other, a duopoly which has remained since. Together, the two parties have accounted for more than 50 percent of the vote share. Over the last two decades, both national parties—BJP and Congress—have queued up to form an alliance with either DMK or AIADMK. In the coalition era, they have played an important role in the formation of nearly every government at the centre from 1989 to 2009..Who Has An Edge In 2019 Elections? .AIADMK Scores On Strike Rate, DMK Success Lies In Alliance.AIADMK has contested on 229 seats in Lok Sabha since its inception, winning 127 of those, yielding a strike rate of 55 percent. DMK has contested on 271 seats winning 111, with a lower strike rate of 41 percent..In the eight elections between 1989 and 2014, DMK has formed alliances with national parties six times, and that alliance has gone on to form the central government on five of these occasions.In the same period, AIADMK has formed an alliance six times too, and has been on on the winning side twice..In the six elections between 1991 and 2009, the alliance that won in Tamil Nadu went on to form the central government in Delhi on every occasion..Smaller Parties May Hold The Key.Over the years, smaller parties like Ramadoss’ PMK , the MDMK led by Vaiko and film star Vijaykanth’s DMDK attempted to challenge the dominance of the two Dravidian parties, and have garnered 12-14 percent vote share. These parties have pockets of influence in specific regions and communities which provide them the edge. In 2019, PMK and DMDK, are contesting along with AIADMK and the NDA, while MDMK is with DMK and UPA. Then there are smaller parties like VCK and the Left Front parties which enjoy decent support in some pockets of the state..Elections 2019: Congress Can Learn How BJP Used And Poached Allies.Overlapping Vote Banks.Hindus account for 88 percent of the population in Tamil Nadu, with Christians at 6 percent, and Muslims making up 5.5 percent of the state. Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes are 21 percent of the population. Many vote segments overlap and smaller parties have pockets of influence, which makes the contest quite interesting..A Game Of Alliances....For almost 20 years, the DMK and Congress had contested vigorously against each other in the state. But the DMK has since shunned its strong anti-Congress stand and contested polls together with the grand old party on many occasions. DMK and AIADMK have allied with both the national parties, Congress and BJP, in the past as shown in the table below, indicating their desire to be in the good books of ruling parties at the centre..The smaller parties, drawing inspiration from DMK and AIADMK, have also allied with one or the other. PMK has had a truck with both DMK and AIADMK in the past, so has MDMK. DMDK, led by superstar Vijaykanth, which made a fabulous debut in 2009 bagging 10.5 percent vote share, allied with BJP in 2014. For the 2019 elections, PMK and MDMK have formed an alliance with AIADMK which has joined NDA, Vaiko has sealed a deal with DMK which is part of UPA..Elections 2019 Still In Play, Despite Modi’s Balakot Boost.Vajpayee’s Setbacks In 1999 And 2004: The Jayalalithaa Link.In 1998, Jayalalithaa joined the NDA led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee. The alliance won 28 out of 39 seats propelling Vajpayee to form the government. However, in 13 months, relations soured and Jayalalithaa masterminded Vajapyee’s downfall. Why? Because he refused to dismiss DMK’s government in Tamil Nadu. Vajpayee lost the trust motion by one vote..After this incident, DMK joined NDA and the alliance won 26 out of 39 seats in 1999 elections. In the 2001 state elections, AIADMK swept the state. A section in the BJP-RSS felt she would do better in the 2004 national elections as well. RSS has always believed that Jayalalithaa was closer to the ideology and philosophy of the BJP. Just before the 2004 elections, DMK left NDA citing BJP’s overtures to AIADMK, and the NDA couldn’t even open its account in the state..The DMK, having left the NDA, allied with the Congress, and the two swept the state winning all 39 seats. This was the main reason for NDA’s defeat in 2004. NDA bagged 189 seats and UPA 225..Had BJP continued its alliance with DMK, NDA would have won 35 out of 39 seats—excluding the Left which won 4 seats—and may have finished with 224 (189+35) while UPA would have got 190 seats (225-35)..Had NDA remained the single-largest block, Vajpayee may have been able to save his government..Elections 2019: Will Modi Pull Off An Indira (1971) Or Fall Like Vajpayee (2004)?.The Relationship Is Interdependent.The relationship with national parties has also benefitted the regional satraps. Whenever DMK has not allied with either Congress or BJP it has fared very poorly – 1977, 1984, 1989, 1991, 1998, 2014. A similar trend also holds true for AIADMK, which has fared poorly vis-à-vis DMK when it has not allied with any national party..What Modi Can Learn From Indira, Rajiv, And Vajpayee’s Defeats.The Trend Favours DMK.Lok Sabha elections results exhibit an interesting trend in the state. Since 1977, the first elections of AIADMK, the electoral history can be broken down in a block of 5 elections. In the first block (1977-1991), AIADMK-led alliances won majority seats in 1977, followed by DMK in 1980. Thereafter, the AIADMK-led alliance won three elections on a trot, 1984, 1989, 1991. In the second block of elections (1996-2009), DMK repeated the feat of AIADMK..Going by the trend, it is the turn of DMK to win maximum seats in the state, which is being mirrored by recent opinion polls..To sum up, 2004 is the only previous election, when both DMK and AIADMK formed an alliance with national parties, DMK with Congress and AIADMK with BJP. In 2019, again, they have both sealed the same alliances. Will history repeat itself?.* Janata Dal considered as a national party in the elections of 1989, 1991, 1996..Amitabh Tiwari is a political commentator, strategist and consultant advising political parties and leaders. He was a corporate and investment banker..The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of BloombergQuint or its editorial team.

Elections 2019 ‘State Of Play’: Tamil Nadu’s Game Of Musical Chairs

Between 1991 and 2009, the alliance that won in TN went on to form the central government on every occasion. What does 2019 hold?

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