Disney’s ‘Lightyear’ Misses Estimates In Debut, Trails ‘Jurassic World’

(Bloomberg) -- The Walt Disney Co. and Pixar marked a rare miss at the box office this holiday weekend, with the animated kids film “Lightyear” falling short of estimates in what was supposed to be a triumphant return to theaters.

The film -- a kind of origin story for Buzz Lightyear, the astronaut of “Toy Story” fame -- brought in an estimated $51 million in the US and Canada. That trailed Boxoffice Pro’s prediction of between $76 million and $105 million and was one of the worst domestic openings against expectations for a Pixar film. It failed to knock “Jurassic World: Dominion” out of first place at the box office, data tracker Comscore Inc. reported.

“Lightyear” was an important test for Disney as its first animated kids movie released exclusively in theaters in more than a year, after mostly opting to debut films on its Disney+ streaming service during Covid-19 lockdowns. While Disney on Sunday emphasized it views the film as a long play that will draw in families over the summer, analysts said that doesn’t ease the initial disappointment.

“This was definitely an unwelcome surprise for what has traditionally been a trifecta of very reliable brands in Disney, Pixar, and ‘Toy Story,’” said Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at Boxoffice Co. “It’s certainly not the way their big summer box office comeback was written up on paper.”

The film may not be much of a catalyst for Disney shares. The stock has fallen 39% so far this year, to $94.34 as of June 17, and has dropped in all but two weeks since late February.

“I‘m not sure we can pinpoint one factor behind the misfire, but rather quite a few,” Robbins said. Those circumstances range “from a competitive market of male-skewing theatrical releases to genuine questions about how Disney marketed ‘Lightyear’ to audiences and what negative impact their straight-to-streaming strategies for recent Pixar movies might have had.”

The film also faced bans abroad and ire from conservative political figures in the US who say the fictional space inhabitants in a same-sex relationship couldn’t naturally produce children and the portrayal violates their religious beliefs.

However, Disney will still consider other sources of revenue when it comes to determining whether “Lightyear” was a flop, according to Jeff Bock, a senior media analyst at Exhibitor Relations. The entertainment giant can still make money off merchandise tied to the film and streaming success, he said.

Disney said it’s betting on the long game. “It should be noted that in nearly all international markets, Lightyear is opening ahead of upcoming school holidays and so long-term play is key,” a company spokesperson said in an emailed statement. “In several markets, Lightyear posted Saturday grosses significantly above Friday, showing that families did come out over the weekend.”

“Lightyear” had been expected to be the largest kids movie since the start of the pandemic, topping the domestic $72 million opening of the Paramount Pictures movie “Sonic the Hedgehog 2” in April.

There was plenty of competition this weekend. “Jurassic World: Dominion,” the sixth film in the successful dinosaur movie franchise from Universal Pictures, led the box office with $58.7 million in its second weekend, Comscore estimated. It had one of the largest openings of 2022 last week, as fans returned for the first real summer moviegoing season in three years.

In addition, “Top Gun: Maverick” continued to generate high ticket sales. It made $44 million over the weekend, and is now the highest-grossing picture starring Tom Cruise. The film may ultimately generate close to $1 billion in global ticket sales, having made more than $800 million in its first 21 days after release.

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